Monday, January 18, 2010

Happy Monday...

Happy Monday. It’s raining here, which is somewhat of an event in Southern California. It’s also MLK day, and although my financial planning practice is technically closed (given the three-day market weekend), I’m dutifully here at the office, pretending to fulfill the responsibilities of my corporate gig. (Given that we’re admittedly given a ridiculous number of vacation days each year, we don’t enjoy the benefit of “fringe” holidays such as this, President’s Day, etc.)

Had a rather typical weekend. My Saturday morning and afternoon poker sessions were uneventful, to say the least. My largest loss of the morning was 46bb when AKs overtook my pocket cowboys. I stacked one player for a full buy-in after he called (w/K8o) my pre-flop raise out of the blinds. I hit a set of queens on the flop while he paired his king, and he called through the river after improving to trips. Was all-in before the river only twice, both times against short stacks. Won 30bb as a 39.5% flop underdog when my tptk overtook my opponent's 2 pair after improving to a straight on the turn; lost 20bb as a 63.3% preflop favorite as big slick lost to 75o. Didn't place in any of the three tournaments; hence the slight bankroll decline...

In the afternoon session, my biggest win was 30bb, after having 3-bet w/KK preflop and getting two callers. My two largest losses were brutal - and a perfect example of why I think EV statistics are horseshit less than particularly meaningful. My largest loss (48bb against a half-stack) came when my pocket aces, out of the blinds, improved to a set on the flop. At the time, I had 97% equity in the $21 pot, calculated against the eventual winner of the hand. He was along for the ride w/QTo. The turn put a jack on board (9-5-A-J with a flush draw). Given that my opponent only had a pot sized bet left in front of him, I could have pushed with my 82% turn equity, but I chose the likelier path to his entire stack, and bet only $10 with the intention of betting his last $24 on the river. Unfortunately, he hit his gutshot on the river - and I was left without even the consolation prize of a bump in expected value. My next biggest loss was to the tune of 40bb. In this instance, I flopped a straight (with KJ on a Q-T-9 rainbow board). I don't know what my equity was, because I didn't bother to call the river shove. Can you guess the turn and river? Come on, play along now... very good! A king followed by a jack...

After shutting down the computer for the day, I had a couple of hours to watch the DVR of the Islanders/Sabres game. It was actually still being played, but I like to delay viewing at least an hour so that I can fast forward through the tv timeouts and intermissions… it’s amazing how much time you can save in life that way. Long story short, the Islanders won another one against one of the top teams in the league. Although they relinquished a 2-0 lead (as they’re remarkably prone to doing), DP outlasted fellow-American Ryan Miller in the shootout for the extra point. It shouldn’t have even gotten to that point, considering the Isles had a third period goal disallowed on a phantom incidental contact-in-the-crease call, which would have given them a 3-1 lead. But it was a great feel-good moment, especially for DP, who admitted his greatest challenge during the course of the day’s events was to not publicly cry in response to the outpouring of support from the home crowd. Good for him.

Headed out to Covina for my standard Saturday night at the Last Chance Saloon with Michele. (It’s not actually called the Last Chance Saloon, I just like to refer to it as such - more to bug Michele than anything else - in honor of the type of clientele who generally patronize the establishment.) Once there, Nate (the bartender) ensured that I’d miss the standard complement of Sunday afternoon poker tournaments by getting me completely sloshed. (He claims it was only the third time he’s seen me drunk. I frankly don’t think he’s been paying enough attention.) 

Nate is a pretty engaging fellow… a current Ph.D. candidate in a philosophical discipline, who until recently even sported the ponytail normally attributable to such intellectual types. He’s become a good friend of ours, to the extent of regularly allowing us, along with one or two select others, to remain in the bar for the purpose of continued drinking long after closing time. We have somewhat of an interesting arrangement, insofar as I’m the only customer, to my knowledge, who is not required to pay for his drinks (given the cash-only setup) as he goes along. Rather, at the end of the night, I’ll provide Nate with a certain amount of cash, and he’ll retain what he feels was an appropriate “take” for the evening. My sense is that both Nate and I profit extensively from this arrangement, to the general detriment of the bar’s ownership.

The evening progressed to a certain point, after which (thanks to my switching from Sammy’s to VO) I remember nothing until awakening at 3 in the afternoon on Sunday. Having effectively missed the daily tournament schedule, I turned on the tv to see that the Jets trailed the Chargers by a touchdown at the half. Settling in with a cup of late afternoon coffee, I watched as Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez kept the Cinderella dream alive by battling back for two fourth quarter touchdowns, and a 17-14 win that has them en route to the Super Bowl semifinal. Man, it’s great to be a New York sports fan right now.

Had a couple of hours to kill before dinner, so I decided to get some final weekend poker action in. Now, here’s the thing… I don’t know if it’s the result of her having a ridiculously small screen that makes multitabling a somewhat difficult chore, or if its simply the poker gods trying to tell me something that I should likely already know, but… this session would prove to be my sixth consecutive losing session at Michele’s home. I’ve never had six losing sessions in a row anywhere, and I’m at a loss for a reasonable explanation. Things started out well enough, with my having built up a $175 profit in the space of a little over an hour. During the course of the session, I was all-in before the river 4 times, won the three as a favorite (91.1% and 85.7% equity on the flop, and 81.9% equity preflop), and lost the one with 17.9% equity on the flop. The losing hand was a blind vs. blind battle where I flopped top two pair against my opponent's made straight.

While I could forgive myself for that loss, the hand that bothered me the most was reflective of the most significant leak I've been trying to combat – essentially, losing my entire stack with a one-pair type hand. In this case, I raised from early position with pocket queens, and was min-three-bet by an uber-aggressive player in the cutoff (playing 31/23/5.6 over 256 hands, and 3-betting 15.9% of his hands – all full ring). The button smooth called, which set up a perfect squeeze opportunity for me. But (perhaps as a function of multitabling and not thinking things through clearly enough), I elected to simply call to close out the betting, and evaluate the flop. The 4-4-3 rainbow appeared relatively innocuous, so I checked to the cutoff, who bet half the pot, eliciting a fold from the button. I called, partially for pot-control, partially to give myself an out if the turn proved threatening, and partially to see if the aggressor would slow down. The turn was a 7, putting a two-flush on board. I checked again, my opponent bet half the pot again, and I called again. The river was a 3, putting two pair on the board and completing a runner-runner flush draw. I checked, and to my surprise, my opponent played an overbet shove for $101. Wtf? I had no idea if he would make this play with a strong ace, or perhaps a pocket pair lower than my queens – but he only had to be behind or bluffing 35% of the time for the call to be correct. So given his aggressive nature, I called. He had pocket 4s, for flopped quads – costing me $141.15, and effectively turning a decent winning session into a small loss. This is definitely a hand I’ll be posting for feedback on the forums…

Islanders playing the Devils in a matinee as I write; I’ll be watching the DVR before my own team’s game later this evening… assuming I can catch a boat up the 405 ;)

Saturday AM
Bankroll: $14,023.39
Session: 1370 hands; up $12.95; EV -$0.44
Month To Date: up $1,336; 7.36 bb/100

Saturday PM
Bankroll: $14,029.84
Session: 1196 hands; up $6.45; EV $6.45
Month To Date: up $1,342; 6.94 bb/100

Sunday
Bankroll: $14,007.34
Session: 1383 hands; down $22.50; EV -$54.59
Month To Date: up $1,320; 6.37 bb/100

Music by the ELS Experiment