I mentioned that I was going to post my thoughts on an aggressive hand I played the other day, after getting some feedback from a forum post on stoxpoker.com. Well, not only did I get feedback, but feedback from the noted poker authority himself, Ed Miller. This is one of the reasons stoxpoker.com is SUCH a valuable site...
Anyway, my original post was as follows:
Ed Miller has a video called 25 stages of a developing TAG, or something like that. One of his later stages is when a player becomes comfortable using aggression to fight for relatively large pots in instances when he has some equity (even to the limited extent of a gutshot draw with potential backdoor draws and overcards). I'm honestly not sure if this play was a valid incorporation of this concept, or just spewy. My thoughts/analysis follow the hand:
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
MP: $160.50 (160.5 bb)
CO: $101 (101 bb)
BTN: $38.35 (38.4 bb)
SB: $194.30 (194.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $213.50 (213.5 bb)
UTG: $105.55 (105.6 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Kh Jh
UTG folds, MP raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $9, MP calls $6
Flop: ($18.50) Ts 9h 4d (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP raises to $36.50, Hero raises to $204.50 and is all-in, MP calls $115 and is all-in
Turn: ($321.50) 5h (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($321.50) Qh (2 players, 2 are all-in)
The villain in this case was someone I perceived to be a fairly aggressive player, compared to the standard full ring player I normally see in these games (19/15/3.0AF over a 1K hand sample). Although this was a full ring game, a few players had just left, so we were down to six handed. I’ve been focusing on playing a more aggressive style of late, with a greater 3-betting frequency (approaching 10% over my last few sessions) - and my sense was that the villain saw me as an aggressive player, capable of making light 3-bets.
When the villain raised my continuation bet, I thought it likely that he could make this play with air, forcing me to make a pot-commitment decision. Given that, and with my gutshot, backdoor flush draw and overcards, I elected to push. Here’s the post-mortem analysis:
I didn’t think it likely that he held AA or KK, as I think he would have pushed these hands preflop. I think the reasonable part of his range with which he would call a shove are limited to QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 44, T9s (and perhaps QJs, 87s, A9s, JTs and 98s, although I only incorporated QJs in the analysis, as I thought it less likely he’d take these hands to the felt without any fold equity).
Plugging these hands into Pokerstove, I would have 28.62% equity against his perceived push-call range. My breakeven analysis is as follows:
X=required fold percentage
67x + (1-x)(.2862)(182) – (1-x)(.7138)(-151.50) = 0
67x + (1-x)(52.0884) – (1-x)(-108.1407) = 0
123.0523x=56.0523
x=45.6%
So, I’d have to get a fold 45.6% of the time to break even.
Since the villain had a 15% preflop raising range (and his late MP range was similar), and the push-call range defined above only constitutes about 3% of all holdings, I think getting a fold at least 45.6% of the time here is a reasonable expectation.
Thoughts?
So Ed was kind enough to respond, letting me know he felt the play was pretty spewy. I won't reprint the thread here, as I don't want to infringe on stoxpoker's IP - but the gist of the rationale was that focusing on solely the 15% preflop range was a pretty significant mistake, which makes sense to me in hindsight. Given that my opponent opens 15% of his hands from this position, it stands to reason that his range for calling the 3-bet would have to be narrower, and perhaps significantly so. Further, the flop raise was a pretty strong line, particularly on this type of board. So, counting on a fold nearly half the time was likely inappropriately ambitious.
Lesson learned. Although last night's session did demonstrate a side benefit to playing the hand this way; specifically, the same player 5-bet shoved his A2s against my AK preflop. So not only did I get caught light on the hand described above (while managing to win the hand for a significant pot), my opponent therafter assumed I was 4-betting light, and shoved against me with a dominated hand - getting stacked again in the process. Fun game, this is... ;)
Current Bankroll: $14,439.99
Session: 1516 hands; up $170.15; EV: $198.19
Month To Date: up $1,754; 5.90 bb/100
