Turning Point...

It clearly takes time to adequately incorporate a newly learned, complex concept in any recurring endeavor.  I mentioned awhile back that I needed to add an element of aggression into my game, a vital element that had been previously absent.  Well, February was the month - and I think yesterday was the turning point.

There are several low stakes grinders who have multitabled their way to SNE status on Stars, chalking up somewhat decent long-term winrates of a few bbs/100 in the process.  Generally, however, you see these grinders with VPIP/PRF ratios of something along the lines of 11/9.  They're waiting for good hands - admittedly, with remarkable discipline - and pushing them to the limit for all they are worth.  This strategy can clearly result in one becoming a solid winner at, say, the $0.50/$1.00 level.  But it's not going to do anything to improve one's game to the point where that player can effectively compete at higher levels.

I have no interest in remaining at $0.50/$1.00.  Accordingly, I've gone through an ongoing process which has resulted in a fairly constant transformation in my playing style.  Late last year, I came to the conclusion that I was taking top pair type hands too far - so I made a conscious effort to stop that, and saw a vast improvement in my winrate for late December and January.

The next step was to significantly open up my aggression level - by stealing blinds more liberally, 3-betting light in position and from the blinds against the right opponents, 4-bet bluffing against habitual 3-bettors, squeezing more regularly and taking fold equity to the felt in inflated pots.  Initially, this resulted in a complete reversal of my previous fortunes - whereas I had previously been a consistent loser in hands that didn't get to showdown but a huge winner in hands that did, I was now playing somewhat breakeven in both categories.  This was obviously a great result for hands that do not get to showdown - but a disastrous turn of events for hands that did.

In reviewing my play - particularly after my nightmarish session on Tuesday - I realized that while I had more than embraced all of the aggressive concepts mentioned above, I was doing so far too liberally.  The net effect of this resulted in a somewhat aggro-donk style of play, which did not reflect favorably upon my winrate.  In fact, after Tuesday, I found myself in the hole to the tune of almost $500 for the month of February - leaving me in danger of posting my first monthly loss ever.

Fortunately, due to my fairly high self-monitoring nature, I feel as though I've rapidly identified the instances in which I've been incorrectly applying this newfound aggression - and have already started making the requisite adjustments to my game.  While it's still too soon to weigh in on this point definitively, my session last night seems to reflect this belief - considering I tabled one of my best sessions ever only 24 hours after completing one of my worst.

If I'm correct, then I do believe there are blue skies on the immediate horizon... 

Current Bankroll: $14,362.14
Tuesday: 3106 hands; down $755.05; EV: -$298.22
Wednesday: 1972 hands; up $535.40; EV: +$432.35
Month To Date: 52,420 hands; up $47; 0.09 bb/100
Year to Date: 88,711 hands; up $1,776; 2.00 bb/100

Keeping The Faith...

"To all you heavy rounders with a headache for your pains
Who dread the thought of going 'round the bend
Bless you all and keep you on the road to better things
Heaven can be yours just for now..."
-Gordon Lightfoot

Just trying to fight through it...

Current Bankroll: $14,581.79
Friday PM (1): 2276 hands; up $18.80; EV: +$40.37
Friday PM (2): 2296 hands; down $540.20; EV: -$494.57
Saturday PM (1): 2458 hands; up $14.20; EV: -$33.31
Saturday PM (2): 1517 hands; down $188.60; EV: -$208.99
Sunday: 722 hands; up $208.10; EV: +$195.04
Month To Date: 47,342 hands; up $267; 0.56 bb/100
Year to Date: 83,633 hands; up $1,996; 2.39 bb/100

Sick hand...

Here's a perfect example of why February's been a struggle.  A hand where I 4-bet bluffed, was flatted, flopped what amounted to the nuts - but was actually an underdog to exactly one of  the 2,162 possible two-card combinations my opponent could have been holding (and yes, he was holding that one combination):

Hero (BTN): $104.05 (104.1 bb)
SB: $120.75 (120.8 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $125.25 (125.3 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $93 (93 bb)
MP3: $145.10 (145.1 bb)
CO: $261.50 (261.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 7d 8s
5 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB raises to $9, BB folds, Hero raises to $22, SB calls $13

Flop: ($45) 5c 9s 6c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB raises to $32, Hero raises to $82.05 and is all-in, SB calls $50.05

Turn: ($209.10) Kc (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($209.10) Ks (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $209.10 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 5c 9s 6c Kc Ks
Hero showed 7d 8s (a straight, Five to Nine) and lost (-$104.05 net)
SB showed 7c 8c (a flush, King high) and won $206.10 ($102.05 net)

Current Bankroll: $15,072.49
Thursday: 2392 hands; down $201.90; EV: -$162.68
Month To Date: 38,073 hands; up $755; 1.98 bb/100
Year to Date: 74,364 hands; up $2,483; 3.34 bb/100

Grinding Against Soft Variance...

Just grinding away the last few days, and holding the line while dealing with some "soft" variance discussed by Ed Miller and Jared Tendler in a recent video (i.e., the variance associated with consistently running into the top end of your opponents' ranges, consistently missing the flop, consistently getting 3-bet, etc.).  I made a few tilty/spewy plays on Tuesday as a result, but was bailed out on a couple of occassions by fortunate turn and river cards.  And so it goes. 

Here's an interesting hand from my Tuesday session... villain is 63/31 over a limited hand sample, so I don't expect him to be very strong when leading OOP into a 3-bet pot, particularly after calling pf out of position.  I thought that when pushing here, given the fold equity I should have had, I would be getting a fold from most of his range.  How little did I know...

MP3: $50 (50 bb)
CO: $122.05 (122.1 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $99 (99 bb)
Hero (BB): $106.70 (106.7 bb)
UTG+1: $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $113.50 (113.5 bb)
MP2: $101.50 (101.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Qd Ad
6 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6

Flop: ($18) 9h 7h Jd (2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero raises to $97.70 and is all-in, SB calls $80 and is all-in

Turn: ($198) 9d (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($198) 5d (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Results: $198 pot ($3 rake)

Final Board: 9h 7h Jd 9d 5d
SB showed 6d 6h (two pairs, Nines and Sixes) and lost (-$99 net)
Hero showed Qd Ad (a flush, Ace high) and won $195 ($96 net)

I love sucking out against head scratching calls lol...

Current Bankroll: $15,274.89
Monday: 2211 hands; down $337.60; EV: -$256.09
Tuesday: 2699 hands; up $150.75; EV: -$256.09
Wednesday: 2826 hands; up $172.85; EV:+$262.27
Month To Date: 35,681 hands; up $957; 2.68 bb/100
Year to Date: 71,972 hands; up $2,685; 3.73 bb/100

Profitable Weekend...

Contrary to my expectations, I did not have to help clean out Michele's garage on Sunday.  In fact, I didn't see Michele at all this weekend, as she's currently dealing with a situation involving one of her family's properties in Arizona.  This benefited me twofold: (a) I didn't have to deal with the ridiculousness of Valentine's Day (my apologies to all hopeless romantics, but seriously, what a bullshit "holiday"), and (b) I got to play a ton of poker.

Fortunately pour moi, I ran pretty well, netting nearly a grand (at 10.10 bb/100) and pushing my bankroll north of the $15K mark in the process.  Oddly enough, my five Friday/Saturday sessions were winners, yet my two Sunday sessions were losers.  (I didn't cash in any of the lotteries tourneys I played.)

A few posts back, I mentioned something about losing repeatedly while playing at Michele's home on Sundays.  The last couple of weekends, I've been playing at my home on Sundays - and the losing has continued.  As much as I'd love to be able to pin the blame on Michele's less-than-optimal poker environment for this trend, I'm coming to the conclusion that I'm ineffectively playing against the schools of fish that regularly turn out on Sundays as a result of the massive tournament schedule.

My sense is that I'm probably falling prey to something akin to FPS - although I wouldn't characterize it precisely as such, because I think the style works well against decent opponents.  I've been rewarded by expanding my aggression level against the normal crop of thinking players who show up during the week - but against the Sunday contingent, these plays simply seem to backfire over and over again.

On a typical weeknight, I can open with ATC for 2.5x on the button, expect to take down a fair amount of pots, be three-bet occasionally, folding most of my trash but occassionally 4-bet bluffing those who I suspect are re-stealing, all for a decent profit.  On Sundays, any open from the button invariably leads to calls from both blinds, neither of whom are going anywhere any time soon.

On a typical weeknight, I can bluff an overcard on the turn.  On Sundays, I'll routinely be called by bottom pair / no draws.

On a typical weeknight, I can protect the money put into a 3-bet pot with a semibluff shove.  On Sundays, not a chance. 

On a typical weeknight, I can profitably squeeze light openers with ATC.  On Sundays, I'll be routinely called by the original caller.  (Actually, one play that seems to be a Sunday favorite that I've now seen on two occasions is where an overcaller will shove against a squeeze attempt.  In both instances, it smelled somewhat funny to me, so I called with, I think, jacks in one instance and KJo in another - and was a comfortable favorite both times.  You know, soul reads, lol...) 

I really think that on Sundays, my biggest mistake is in trying to play too creatively/aggressively.  There's no point in trying to represent a hand when your opponent isn't thinking about what you're likely holding.  And there's no point in trying to utilize position without the benefit of cards, when your opponents couldn't possibly care less about your positional advantage. 

So, I'm probably better off playing solely my cards on Sundays - only raising with hands that rate to be a favorite in late position, only continuing when I actually hit the flop, and calling more preflop with anticipated implied odds.  The challenge will be in forcing myself to actually play this way...          

Current Bankroll: $15,288.89
Friday PM (1): 1068 hands; up $427.35; EV: +$583.85
Friday PM (2): 1065 hands; up $208.85; EV: +$203.59
Saturday AM: 639 hands; up $379.79; EV: +$358.84
Saturday PM (1): 1548 hands; up $89.20; EV: -$51.02
Saturday PM (2): 1252 hands; up $246.95; EV: +$110.35
Sunday AM: 2634 hands; down $305.30; EV: -$412.35
Sunday PM: 1483 hands; down $67.95; EV: -$127.20
Month To Date: 27,945 hands; up $971; 3.47 bb/100
Year to Date: 64,236 hands; up $2,699; 4.20 bb/100

Stylistic Differences...

I mentioned in yesterday's blog that I've started to see a breakthrough at my current level.  What I essentially mean is that I've finally incorporated a more reasonable sense of aggression into my game.  Thus far in February, my VPIP/PFR stats are 16.2/14.5 (although the style is now actually closer to a 17.5/15.5; my overall stats should converge to this as the month progresses), and my post-flop aggression rating is now 2.68 (but will likely be closer to between 2.7 and 3.0).  My 3-betting and squeeze stats are now at 5.4% and 4.0% respectively.

Although I've been running a bit cold in February (currently flat for the month, although I should be about $500 better in terms of all-in EV, and I've run into some cold decks with hands that weren't all-in prior to the river), I feel much more confident in my post-flop game.  I think this is a result of playing more hands overall, and having to regularly deal with the response to my obvious light steals in late position.  The more you do it, the better you get.  

An interesting side result is that my Hold'Em Manager "red line" (reflecting money won without a showdown) is positive for the first time in seven months.  I'd previously been seeing significant monthly red line losses - so if I can get my showdown win result close to my normal monthly levels, I should be seeing a phenomenal improvement in my winrate.  While stylistic differences in play dictate that an improvement on one side of the ledger will probably result in a decrease in the other side, my immediate task will be to try to minimize this offsetting effect.   

Unless I'm granted a reprieve, it looks like I'm going to be tasked with helping Michele to clean out her garage tomorrow.  So once again, my weekend poker is going to be affected...

Current Bankroll: $14,363.99
Sunday AM: 1427 hands; up $36.60; EV: -$37.82
Sunday PM: 1877 hands; down $330.55; EV: -$169.10
Tuesday: 2069 hands; down $333.40; EV: -$86.97
Wednesday: 2896 hands; up $394.05; EV: +$419.91
Thursday: 2767 hands; up $107.05; EV: -$58.73
Month To Date: down $7; -0.04 bb/100
Year to Date: up $1,720; 3.15 bb/100
 

Deleted Post...

I've elected to delete yesterday's post.  Suffice it to say that this past weekend's poker was limited to action on Sunday, but I mentally just wasn't into it - and ended up failing to cash in the two MTTs I entered and dropped 3 full buy-ins in the cash games.  I wasn't even in the mood to do a post-mortem, so I've got no current stats to reflect...

Decent Recovery...

Was all-in six times last night, won 2 as a heavy favorite and lost 3 as a significant dog; won the one as a slight underdog (w/AK vs. QQ pf). 
 
My biggest mistake of the session was a hand where I raised under the gun w/AKs.  I was 3-bet by the big blind (who 3-bets 10% of his hands from that position) to about $11 (effective stacks were $100), and I called in position.  The flop came Q96, giving me a backdoor flush draw and two overcards.  The BB led out for $15 into the $22 pot, and I shoved with my perceived fold equity and draws.  Unfortunately, I was insta-called with kings.
 
In this case, I incorrectly invoked Ed Miller's advice regarding playing inflated pots against light 3-bettors.  Generally, if a light 3-bettor puts a bet in on the the flop and you push with as little as 25% equity, it's very hard for the 3-bettor to call, given his range - and when he does, you have the draws to fall back on.  That would have made sense in this case had my opponent perceived my play to be a steal from the cutoff or button.  However, since my raise came from under the gun, he likely would have put me on a strong hand - and I therefore should have identified his range as having been significantly narrower.  Chalk up another lesson learned...
 
On the bright side, I'm happy to report that $245 of my win came from non all-in scenarios...

No poker tonight, as I have to head to a Hollywood party involving guys in my hockey league at a place called Coco Deville.  I've never heard of this place, but Michele tells me it's a fairly well-known celebrity hangout.  (And she would know.)  Since the guys in my league are all entertainment types (both on the business and talent side), I guess that makes sense.  I know that sounds like it would be fun for most people, but all I can think of right now is how much I'm going to regret not being able to get in some cards this evening... 

Current Bankroll: $14,533.09
Thursday: 1987 hands; up $316.65; EV: $206.94
Month To Date: up $118; 1.64 bb/100
Year to Date: up $1,847; 4.25 bb/100

Looking to improve in marginal post-flop situations...

My first session of February picked up right where January left off - with a loss of over two buy-ins, except this time I was victmized by a pretty tough run of cards - including QQ losing to a set of jacks on the river, aces getting cracked by kings after the money went in preflop, a set of jacks losing to a royal flush on the river, and two instances of pushing with the nut flush draw on the flop against sets, neither of which got there.

I fared a bit better last night in a fairly uneventful session.  Given the discovery I wrote about the other day, I intend to pay much closer attention to my performance in instances where I am not all-in before the river.  I posed the question on stoxpoker.com, and the response that came back was that the result is probably a function of style - meaning that I'm likely a tighter player (true) who makes most of his money off of maniacs who get it all-in light.

I guess that's served me well thus far - but my sense is that in order to move up to higher limits, I'm going to need to refine my game so that my performance in more marginal post-flop situations improves dramatically.  In examining some of my losses in these instances, it's become clear to me that I often spew a ton of money trying to run multi-street bluffs at inappropriate times.  The fact that I'm continually able to win a few huge pots on a fairly consistent basis has somewhat disguised this leak, as I've remained profitable overall - but looking at this in a vacuum will result in my now addressing this deficiency directly.

In that regard, while Wednesday's win was fairly modest, I was satisfied with the fact that the vast bulk of it came from non all-in situations.  I'll be looking to improve upon that trend prospectively... 

Current Bankroll: $14,216.44
Tuesday: 3290 hands; down $225.00; EV: $266.13
Wednesday: 1939 hands; up $26.85; EV: $25.46
Month To Date: down $198; -3.79 bb/100
Year to Date: up $1,530; 3.69 bb/100
 

"I'm All-In..."

I made quite a discovery yesterday. In attempting to further investigate what I consider to be the validity of EV statistics (or lack thereof), I incorporated a couple of filters in my stats to determine how many times I was all-in before the river (when EV stats come into play), vs. how many times I am not all-in before the river (when EV is not affected).

Since starting to play no-limit in the first half of 2009, I’ve logged approximately 310,000 hands. Of this amount, I was all-in before the river approximately 1200 times. That’s less than ½ percent of all hands played. To put it another way, my EV statistics fail to account for more than 99.5% of the hands that I play.

But that wasn’t the surprising discovery. Here’s the discovery that nearly caused me to lose consciousness:

1. In the 310K hands that I’ve played, my overall winrate is an admittedly modest 3.01 bb/100. (Hey, I’m still a relative no-limit neophyte, lol.)
2. In the 1,200 hands in which I’ve been all-in before the river, my winrate is 742.75 bb/100.
3. In the other 309K hands, I’m showing a modest monetary LOSS. (Due to playing at different blind levels, my overall winrate is actually a positive 0.11 bb/100 over this sample.)

So, essentially, I’m a breakeven player over the course off 99.5% of the hands that I’ve played, and a huge winner over the course of the remaining 0.5% of the hands that I’ve played. Virtually all of my profit has come from less than 0.5% of all of my hands.

I’m honestly stunned by this. At first, I thought it was rather damning evidence that my play is sorely lacking in some respects (and I suppose that may still be the case) - but in reviewing the stats of other winning players within my database, the pattern seems to repeat itself over and over again. Players who have material positive winrates overall seem to be breakeven players or net losers over the course of all hands in which they are not all-in before the river – which is obviously the vast majority of hands.

Are these stats ridiculously skewed, or do most players have similar patters?

(I’ll post on Stoxpoker for feedback/commentary…)

(As an aside, I'd love to know how to replace those stupid flowers up above with actual bullet points lol...)

Blew it...

Was rolling along with a nice win on Friday - and so I only needed to get through a decent weekend to maintain my 6bb/100 winrate for the month, and move up to $1-$2.  Unfortunately, the wheels fell off the wagon on Saturday.  It started with set over set, and culminated with several losses on the river.  Had a couple of ill advised plays (pushing over a 4-bet in a button vs. blind battle w/AK, only to run into KK, and trying to run a 3-barrell bluff into a made hand, etc) that were ultimately the result of tilt, and well... looks like I'm going to be spending another month at $0.50-$1.00... 

Current Bankroll: $14,414.59
Friday: 1237 hands; up $174.95; EV: $174.79
Saturday AM: 1302 hands; up $11.90; EV: $23.30
Saturday PM: 2093 hands; down $343.60; EV: -$401.18
Sunday: 528 hands; up $7.40; EV: -$104.26
Month To Date: up $1,728; 4.76 bb/100