Thursday, February 18, 2010

Grinding Against Soft Variance...

Just grinding away the last few days, and holding the line while dealing with some "soft" variance discussed by Ed Miller and Jared Tendler in a recent video (i.e., the variance associated with consistently running into the top end of your opponents' ranges, consistently missing the flop, consistently getting 3-bet, etc.).  I made a few tilty/spewy plays on Tuesday as a result, but was bailed out on a couple of occassions by fortunate turn and river cards.  And so it goes. 

Here's an interesting hand from my Tuesday session... villain is 63/31 over a limited hand sample, so I don't expect him to be very strong when leading OOP into a 3-bet pot, particularly after calling pf out of position.  I thought that when pushing here, given the fold equity I should have had, I would be getting a fold from most of his range.  How little did I know...

MP3: $50 (50 bb)
CO: $122.05 (122.1 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
SB: $99 (99 bb)
Hero (BB): $106.70 (106.7 bb)
UTG+1: $100 (100 bb)
MP1: $113.50 (113.5 bb)
MP2: $101.50 (101.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Qd Ad
6 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $6

Flop: ($18) 9h 7h Jd (2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero raises to $97.70 and is all-in, SB calls $80 and is all-in

Turn: ($198) 9d (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($198) 5d (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Results: $198 pot ($3 rake)

Final Board: 9h 7h Jd 9d 5d
SB showed 6d 6h (two pairs, Nines and Sixes) and lost (-$99 net)
Hero showed Qd Ad (a flush, Ace high) and won $195 ($96 net)

I love sucking out against head scratching calls lol...

Current Bankroll: $15,274.89
Monday: 2211 hands; down $337.60; EV: -$256.09
Tuesday: 2699 hands; up $150.75; EV: -$256.09
Wednesday: 2826 hands; up $172.85; EV:+$262.27
Month To Date: 35,681 hands; up $957; 2.68 bb/100
Year to Date: 71,972 hands; up $2,685; 3.73 bb/100

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