The preceding several months have been quite a challenge. My game has been wildly erratic during this period, primarily as a result of my ill-advised attempts to (a) mimic the aggression levels generally espoused as being optimal on most message boards and training sites, and (b) establish a positive – or at least breakeven – redline.
After a particularly poor February (in which I suffered a 22 buy-in downswing), I started off strong in March, winning steadily to the tune of over 6bb/100 while actually maintaining a flat redline over the course of about 20K hands. This was the result of opening significantly wider from the button and cutoff, calling three-bets much more liberally and then looking to take pots away on later streets regardless of my holdings. The strategy worked wonders for a time, but alas, it seemed the entire universe of my opponents suddenly became aware of what I was doing, and adjusted with a vengeance. My $1.5K monthly profit dwindled to about $400, and I finally realized I needed to take stock.
I looked at the graphs of some of the most profitable players in my database. What I discovered surprised me: just about every one of them had a steadily decreasing redline.
Talk about liberating! For the first time, I felt like I had permission to fold when I felt certain I was behind, even after putting material amounts of money in the pot. And I felt like I had permission to run certain “potshot” plays, but then abandon them before taking them too far in the event of early indications they weren’t going to work as planned. I’ve also discovered that I’m more comfortable playing postflop than I previously thought – and now realize that frequently allowing hands to get to the flop while in position is infinitely better for me than attempting to settle matters on the basis of two cards. (I think I alluded to this concept once before, but it hadn’t really crystallized for me until now.)
My results have been promising. Over the last 20K hands, I’ve been winning steadily at a rate of 8bb/100 (7bb/100 EV), and am currently on target for my best month ever. My immediate goal will be to maintain a winrate of 5bb/100 in EV for the entire month of April. If I can do that over the course of 100K hands, $5K will have been added to my current $19.2K bankroll, bringing it to $24.2K. I’m also currently eligible for a $4K bonus, which would bring my bankroll to close to $30K, at which point I will take a shot at $1-$2.
If I can then maintain a 4bb/100 EV winrate at $1-$2 over the course of a few hundred thousand hands, I will have to consider whether it makes sense to do this full-time. After all… 12K hands per hour at 40 hours per week is close to 200K hands per month. 200K hands per month at $8/100 hands translates into $16K per month, or $192K per year (not including bonuses). My day job (with which I am decidedly not in love) currently pays me six figures, but not to that extent…
